Excitement as the reckoning draws near

Who are the favourites; who are the dark horses; and what's this about someone losing his head?

The first by-elections of the Brown/Brownian/Brownite era have had quite a buzz around them, in particular in the Ealing Southall race.

No disrespect to people of the West London constituency, but there is a larger issue at hand than this who represents them in Westminster. Today’s vote will be a help assess the success so far of the new prime minister. More than that it will be a litmus test for David Cameron and Ming Campbell as heads of their respective parties.

Ealing Southall
While it looks to be a close race, the Lib Dem candidate Nigel Bakhai is unlikely to be able to keep up with Labour’s Virendra Sharma and Conservative Tony Lit. You can probably ignore the confident predictions of Paddy Ashdown. He told the BBC, while helping Bakhai campaign, the Lib Dems would be triumphant observing modestly: “Wherever I turn up we win, you watch that.”

The results of the election are likely not only to result in Ashdown eating his words but his party could even lose their beleaguered leader. Campbell has been under fire of late and since the Lib Dem’s finished second in the 2005 general election, a worse result would signal a loss of faith by voters. This could be more than enough ammunition for Ming’s critics within the party to call for his head.

Labour holds an 11,500 majority and Ealing Southall has traditionally been a reliable stronghold. But its candidate’s selection sparked an extraordinary reaction in some parts of the local party. Five councillors defected to join the Tories in light of Virendra Sharma’s nomination.

Meanwhile, the Tories have tried to capitalise on Labour’s difficulties over not opting for an all-woman shortlist and/or Sikh representation. Cameron’s crew went out and found a young, flashy (Labour leaflets refer to him as a “playboy”) candidate in Tony Lit. The fact that he is from a prominent family (as seen on Sunday Times rich list) and a Sikh could help the Tories leapfrog the Lib Dems altogether.

Whether a Sikh and freshly minted Tory (only three weeks old) or a local yokel, Ealing Southall will be represented by someone not named Khabra for the first time in over 15 years.

Sedgefield
With Tony Blair resigning, his old stomping ground is the other of the by-election battlegrounds. The word on the street is residents want an MP to focus on regeneration and investment in the area, particularly in Newton Aycliffe.

Labour’s Phil Wilson is keen to point out he is not the prime minister and wants to give his full attention to a backyard that some (namely Tory candidate Graham Robb and his Lib Dem opponent Greg Stone) say Blair neglected for too long.

Throw in the fact Independent candidate Paul Gittins could steal some votes from Wilson and it could tighten up the finish.

Mind you, from where I sit, it still looks like Labour will finish first in both races and that Ming’s head will fly, but we won’t know until results are announced in the midnight-hour.